Trade War Spillovers: The Effect of US-China Tariffs on ASEAN Export Patterns

Trade War Spillovers: The Effect of US-China Tariffs on ASEAN Export Patterns

Themba Nkosi

Asian Economics Review • Vol. 23, No. 4

Research Article2023DOIPeer Reviewed

Abstract

Difference-in-differences analysis of HS6-digit trade flows shows that US-China tariff escalation from 2018-2020 generated significant trade diversion to ASEAN economies. Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand captured the largest export gains in electronics (elasticity 2.3) and machinery (elasticity 1.8). Welfare decomposition shows net ASEAN gains of USD 48 billion across the tariff escalation period.

Publication Information

AcceptedNovember 15, 2023
DOI10.12345/aer.2023.019

Author Information

Themba Nkosi
ORCID: 0000-0005-6789-0123
Affiliation: University of Cape Town, School of Economics
Email: t.nkosi@uct.ac.za
Website: https://example.com/tnkosi
Keywordstrade war, US-China tariffs, ASEAN, trade diversion, difference-in-differences, welfare

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